The Use of Catastrophe Theory in Forensics

The modern theory of catastrophes contributes to the understanding dynamic situations that govern evolutionary development natural phenomena, society, and man, as well prediction instability various systems can have catastrophic consequences. results this are widely used in fields knowledge: physics, biology, economics, medicine, psychology, linguistics, ecology other sciences. paper attempts use forensic science, particular, investigation criminally relevant incidents a man-made nature related professional activities, which inherently destructive product functioning systems. First, theoretical aspects briefly outlined, main concepts their classifications considered (catastrophe, disaster, emergency, emergencies, sources increased danger, etc.), important for developing methodology investigating crimes activities. In order improve efficiency investigator’s recognition activity establishing cause crime under (man-made disaster), author proposes schemes (probabilistic models) obtained using techniques constructing so-called fault event trees, addressed primarily specialists associated with operation technical supervision behind them. According author, will contribute effectiveness putting forward investigative leads criminal case verification.